200-250 surplus aircraft expected over next 6-12 months: CAPA India

According to the latest update by CAPA on the state of the Indian aviation industry, Indian carriers will require a domestic fleet of around 300-325 aircraft from Oct-2020 onwards, and an international fleet of 100-125 aircraft. The total fleet size of 400-450 aircraft would still mean that the current fleet of 650 represents a surplus of 200-250 aircraft for a period of 6-12 months. While a gradual path towards normality could be expected during Q3 and Q4, the Indian aviation sector is likely to shrink significantly, even if some of the vulnerable airlines manage to survive. This estimate may still be conservative and assumes that Q1 FY2021 will be almost written-off, with traffic limping back during the weak second quarter, followed by a gradual trajectory towards normality during the second half of the financial year.